| ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration |
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| Results: 37 |
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No. 38: The Financial Crisis and Money Markets in Emerging Asia 
Robert Rigg and Lotte Schou-Zibell (November 2009)
Abstract 
Asian money markets entered the financial crisis in better shape than markets in other regions due to a substantial build-up of savings and liquidity in their banking systems, as well as a greater domestic focus in most of the region’s markets. However, despite the higher liquidity and lower levels of global integration, the effects of the crisis in Asia were severe and followed a similar path observed in international markets. The further development of money markets, particularly in less developed economies, will require policies and initiatives that add liquidity and depth to attract broader participation from both domestic and international investors—including regional cooperation, a robust regulatory architecture, and foreign competition to expedite the development of less developed money markets. Risk management and liquidity assumptions also need to be enhanced to establish buffers that will withstand more severe and prolonged external shocks and disruptions to external financing. |
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No. 37 - Roads for Asian Integration: Measuring ADB’s Contribution to the Asian Highway Network
Srinivasa Madhur, Ganeshan Wignaraja and Peter Darjes (November 2009)
Abstract
Against the backdrop of growing momentum for regional cooperation and integration (RCI) in Asia, this paper examines the link between regional roads and Asian Development Bank (ADB) support between 1966 and 2008. The novel methodology used in this paper includes an Asia-wide definition of regional roads that fall on the Asian Highway (AH) network. The AH network is a system of about 140,000 kilometers (km) of standardized roads crisscrossing many Asian countries and with linkages to Europe. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) conducts research on Asian roads and works with member countries to identify financing sources for AH network development. In relation to assessing ADB's contribution to regional roads, three tasks are attempted in this paper: (i) an identification of ADB-financed regional roads and other kinds of roads in ADB's portfolio, (ii) an estimation of ADB's contribution to the AH network, and (iii) the development of a map where ADB’s contribution to regional road construction and infrastructure can be easily juxtaposed with the AH network. The paper finds that regional highways have been a notable and growing part of ADB's road portfolio since the 1990s, particularly in ADB’s subregional programs such as the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) programs. It also finds that ADB road investment has made a significant contribution to the AH network, representing about two thirds of the network’s core roads. While parts of the AH network have been completed, substantial gaps still exist, including an estimated $43.8 billion required for priority projects. As part of its mandate to promote better integration of Asian infrastructure, ADB may have a role to play in addressing the financing, planning, and institutional development of the AH network. Furthermore, strengthened coordination among ADB, UNESCAP, and other actors can enhance both the AH network and the process of regional road development in Asia. |
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No. 36 - Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis
Warwick J. McKibbin and Waranya Pim Chanthapun (October 2009)
Abstract
Rising economic integration in Asia and periodic volatility in global and national financial markets raise the issue of the optimal degree and form of monetary cooperation among Asian economies. There is a large literature on the benefits and costs of monetary cooperation, however, less can be found with a specific focus on Asia. A number of studies have explored whether Asia might form an optimal currency area, although these have focused on the nature of shocks, in particular business cycle correlations, as well as the extent of trade linkages among economies. Less has been done on the impact of portfolio shifts and financial shocks, and how these shocks impact on financial cooperation. This paper has two goals. The first is to explore the impacts of the current global financial crisis on Asian economies under existing monetary and exchange rate arrangements. The second is to explore how alternative forms of cooperation and exchange rate regimes might change the economic outcomes in Asia. In particular, the paper explores the impact of current regimes compared to one of three hypothetical regimes: (i) all countries peg to the US dollar, (ii) all Asian economies are in an Asian Currency Union with an Asian Central Bank setting policy, or (iii) floating exchange rates with each central bank in Asia independently choosing optimal time-consistent, closeloop policy rules to target a loss function consisting of deviation in inflation and output growth from desired levels. |
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No. 35 - Regional Economic Impacts of Cross-Border Infrastructure: A General Equilibrium Application to Thailand and Lao PDR
Peter Warr, Jayant Menon and Arief Anshory Yusuf (October 2009)
Abstract
A general equilibrium framework is used in this paper to study the regional economic effects of infrastructure improvements designed to reduce the costs of cross-border inter-regional trade. The analysis focuses on the economic benefits from the Second Mekong International Bridge between Mukdahan Province in Thailand and Savannakhet Province in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. The results suggest that in the shortrun, the kind of transport cost reductions that are consistent with improvement of interregional transport facilities will produce a modest increase in inter-regional trade volumes in both directions and a small increase in real consumption in both regions. Over a longer period of time, the economic benefits to both regions are very much larger, as investors respond to the changed structure of incentives with new capital investments, and as workers move to regions of greater return to their labor. The results do not confirm the common presumption that the benefits from cross-border infrastructure projects occur only, or overwhelmingly, in the richer region. |
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No. 34 - Beyond the Crisis: Financial Regulatory Reform in Emerging Asia
Chee Sung Lee and Cyn-Young Park (September 2009)
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to suggest reform measures to address the gaps and weaknesses in emerging Asia's financial regulatory and supervisory systems, on the basis of lessons drawn from the global crisis. For emerging Asia, the direct impact of the global financial crisis has been limited, thus generating substantially less pressure for financial restructuring and regulatory reform than is the case in developed economies. However, the underlying causes of the current turmoil—such as the dynamics of financial innovation and globalization—remain relevant for the region. As the world embraces wide-ranging financial reforms, emerging Asia will face dramatic changes in the global financial landscape. The region's authorities need to be prepared for the changing regulatory environment and proactive in strengthening their national regulatory and supervisory frameworks, in line with higher regulatory standards emanating from global reforms. Financial regulators will also need to design an effective and coherent framework for cross-border crisis management, and work towards a potential international regulatory and surveillance system. |
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No. 33 - Developing Indicators for Regional Economic Integration and Cooperation
Giovanni Capannelli, Jong-Wha Lee and Peter Petri (September 2009)
Abstract
We develop indicators to measure the degree of economic integration and cooperation among East Asian economies and compare these with similar measures for other regions. Our indicators cover regional integration in trade, investment, financial assets, and people-to-people exchange. We also analyze measures of regional cooperation such as the density of free trade agreements and official policy dialogues. We find that in various Asian groupings, and especially in a group of 16 integrating Asian economies, interdependence in trade, direct investment, financial flows, and other forms of economic and social exchange has increased significantly over time, and now approaches that in the European Union. Nonetheless, Asia’s official cooperation remains weak and formal regional institutions remain relatively underdeveloped. To provide insight into the causes of this discrepancy, we also develop quantitative measures of political and cultural similarity of nations, and find that Asian countries have relatively low levels of political and cultural proximity compared to regions such as Europe. The diversity of political interests and cultural values may have hindered more intense cooperation among Asian economies in the past. But if regional economic and social interactions continue to grow, requirements for joint decision-making are also likely to expand, leading to stronger frameworks of official cooperation. |
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No. 32 - India’s Role in South Asia Trade and Investment Integration
Rajiv Kumar and Manjeeta Singh (July 2009)
Abstract
Recent developments in South Asian countries, especially the re-emergence of democratic governments, new growth momentum despite the global economic downturn and greater openness, warrant a fresh look at the region’s prospects for economic integration. On the basis of a thorough review of the literature on potential and prospects of regional integration in South Asia and after examining the trends in intra-SAARC trade and investment flows, this paper finds that the progress in regional cooperation has been far short of potential. The paper, therefore, focuses on the ‘real impediments’ to regional integration and on that basis makes a set of policy oriented recommendations for furthering deeper regional integration in South Asia. It also emphasizes that given its dominant size, human resources, and aspirations for a global role. India will have to take on a disproportionately larger responsibility for promoting regional cooperation in South Asia. However, regional integration will not be achieved by India’s unilateral actions alone. Neighboring governments will have to respond positively to Indian initiatives for successful regional integration in South Asia. |
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No. 31 - Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling
Soyoung Kim, Jong-Wha Lee, and Cyn-Young Park (June 2009)
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging Asia and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the “decoupling” of emerging Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post-crisis period, suggesting “recoupling”, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging Asia (and the People’s Republic of China [PRC]) have a significant positive effect on output in majorindustrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging Asia and industrial countries has become “bi-directional,” defying the traditional notion of the “North–South relationship” as one of “uni-directional" dependence. |
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No. 29 - East Asian and European Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis
Giovanni Capannelli and Carlo Filippini (May 2009)
Abstract
This paper compares the economic integration processes of the European Union and the East Asian nations and comments on the possible reciprocal lessons, if any, that can be drawn in order to smooth the future paths of the two groups. On the EU side, institutions, structural policies, and the monetary union are most relevant, and in East Asia, production networks, trade, and financial cooperation. Both entities are presently facing difficult challenges to progress and growth. |
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No. 28 - The Building Block versus Stumbling Block Debate of Regionalism: From the Perspective of Service Trade Liberalization in Asia
Shintaro Hamanaka (May 2009)
Abstract
When debating the pros and cons of economic regionalism, haven’t we focused enough on trade in goods at the expense of services? This article argues that regionalism is certainly a building block, not a stumbling block to a multilateral trading system, using the services liberalization scheme of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a case study. At the same time, it is critical to set out a proper institutional arrangement to ensure that regional services liberalization initiatives reinforce the global services regime. This paper proposes an amendment of the current GATS Article V to define the appropriate relationship between multilateralism and regionalism in the context of services. |
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| Results: 37 |
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